February 19, 2005 - Saturday

Yesterday started dismally with the software malfunction that exposed the delicate underpinnings of my early morning forays into the blogosphere. Obviously not as exciting as a Super Bowl malfunction, but still not a good way to start the day. Then we had to rush to get Meda to the Ala Moana Hotel well ahead of a scheduled conference presentation. And, of course, it was the morning a seal decided to make her appearance on the beach across from Kaaawa School just as we drove past the spot.

Another Kaaawa seal sighting click for larger version

I first noticed a government pickup truck parked on the side of the road and a few people on the sand looking towards the ocean. As we passed by, I could see a dark shape right on the ocean's edge. A rock? A turtle? Possibly, but with the recent seal sightings in mind I pulled over. And sure enough, there she was, rolling languidly in the water and then rollling over to scratch her back on the sand. At one point she looked up directly at us, then returned to her business.

Luckily, I happened to be carrying one of our cameras and was able to get a few quick photos before Ms. Seal meandered along down the coast.

But there were two telephone messages waiting when we got home last night. It seems there were two more seal sightings late in the afternoon in different parts of Kaaawa. What a day.

Is W telling tall tales? That's what one alert reader wants to know. She notes a Reuters report that President Bush told an audience of European journalists that he worked on a sheep farm in Scotland as a 14 year old. But his experience outside of the U.S. was a point of contention during the 2000 presidential election, and a Google search turns up many references to Bush never leaving the country before his election as governor of Texas. A colorful stint as a sheep worker certainly hasn't come up previously.

Speaking of Reuters, Newspaper Guild members working in the U.S. for the London-based company have voted to strike if necessary to obtain a new contract to replace the one which expired two years ago.

Last minute discovery. I thought the laptop had frozen again. Panic. But I noticed a few signs of life, although I couldn't move the cursor and the keyboard was nonresponsive. So I plugged in an external trackball and the cursor moved. And then realized the computer didn't crash yesterday, the keyboared and trackpad were frozen, as they are again right now. Using the external setup, I was able to email this draft page to myself and finish it up on another computer. Now I've got to figure out whether this is caused by a recent software upgrade or is totally hardware related. Not good news, but at least identifying the problem is a huge step forward.

February 18, 2005 - Friday

6:05 a.m.--Powerbook freezes while waking up from a short "sleep", taking today's entry down with it. Doom and despair reigns in Kaaawa. Hopefully all will be forgiven once the delayed entry finally appears. And here it comes...

Although then homeland security secretary Tom Ridge told reporters during last year's presidential campaign that the department was above the political fray, in fact he was meeting with Republican pollsters before venturing into key battleground states, Associated Press writer Pete Yost reports.

Yost's article is based on a review of daily appointment calendars obtained through use of the federal Freedom of Information Act.

Unfortunately, it's the kind of important story that you won't be reading about any state or county officials in Hawaii as a result of a ruling last year by the Office of Information Practices.

OIP Opinion 2004-17, issued in October, 2004, held that calendars are akin to personal notes and therefore are not government records subject to disclosure. OIP appears to have discounted or ignored the fact that calendars are maintained by government employees (secretaries) as a record of official events participated in by public officials in the course of their public dutues, and as such are essential to the operations of the government. Could any department head operate without his or her "official" calendar? Clearly the answer is "No", but that doesn't appear to have entered into OIP's considerations.

So the short sad story is that Hawaii reporters will not be able to check the veracity of official statements against actual meeting schedules, at least until someone convinces OIP to reconsider the issue or takes the matter directly to court. Sad but true.

Knight Ridder has stepped up to contribute to the process of news consolidation by buying the company that produces a series of tiny community daily papers in Palo Alto, San Mateo, Redwood City, and surrounding California cities. The purchase allows Knight Ridder to scoop up a whole layer of small advertisers in addition to the bigger companies that advertise in its premier dailies like the San Jose Mercury News.

And the battle over the Seattle newspaper joint operating agreement and the future of another two newspaper city has reached the Washington Supreme Court with oral arguments presented this week.

February 17, 2005 - Thursday

I received several reactions yesterday to my comments on the Star-Bulletin's workers compensation editorial. Well, not really on the editorial but on the issue. Here's one:

I think that you are right in saying the SB's POV was transparent. But you didn't address a lot of what was written and is true. Brian Kanno has refused to meet with reform advocates for some time. Is that open government? Is that right? And you cannot deny that work comp costs in Hawaii are what they are -- very, very high. I also have personal friends who are fraud investigators and they tell me that Hawaii is well known around the country as a safe-haven for egregious violators of work comp laws. As for me, when I start my company (some day) every single employee will be a hired contractor on a work-for-hire basis precisely b/c workers comp and other pro-labor provisions make it harder for small businesses to stay afloat and remain profitable. Not saying this stuff should be abolished. But I think that if you went out and talked to small biz owners about this they would say that it brakes their growth or, if they decide to pay it, it jacks up their prices. Just my two cents.

But on the other hand:

Ian, you are correct to question worker's comp reform as it is being presented to an unsuspecting public.

Too many jumped on the Ahhnold "Governnator" reform bandwagon here in California, without taking into consideration the workers that would be left in limbo until new laws are thoroughly sorted out.

The system was in need of some fat cutting and specific reform, but what we have ended up with by pushing legislation through at a break-neck speed, is a huge mess that is still being sorted out. The insurance industry appears to be the eventual big winner, the injured workers the big losers... no surprise to myself or others that follow the screwed-up WC trail.

A quick check turned up interesting and much fairer discussions of workers comp issues.

A 2003 article from Risk & Insurance magazine, co-authored by Phil Denniston of the Risk Loss Data Institute (cited in the S-B editorial) contains a chart showing Hawaii as only modestly above the national average in workers comp costs for comparable businesses. Hawaii's system is credited with a favorable efficiency rating.

A two part series in Insurance Journal (Oct. 11 & Oct. 25, 2004) assesses Hawaii's rising WC costs from a more balanced perspective, finding fault in many areas including the normal insurance cycle.

In the first part, a Hawaii insurance executive explains:

"Examined over a 15 or 20 year timeline, workers' comp costs have risen at a slower rate than many other business expenses," he added. "However, because the insurance cycle consists of periods of rapidly falling premiums and rapidly increasing premiums, when premiums are rising the perception always exists that workers' compensation costs are out of control.

Other factors cited include fraud (one exec says premium fraud by employers exceeds fraud in claims), and the failure of Hawaii employers to clean up their safety records.

In any case, these more balanced discussions of the issues put the transparent anti-labor bias of the S-B into even sharper perspective. Assuming that the Bulletin reflects the views of at least part of the business community, it's little wonder that key legislators might view the resulting legislative agenda as unfairly skewed to the detriment of employees.

And for something completely different, I ran across former Advertiser reporter Bill Kresnak's name and sent off a quick email. His reply came back with equal speed:

Long time no see. Been here since 1999 and loving it. Besides writing about legal-related issues I get to travel around the country, riding motorcycles and writing about it. You can check it out at www.AMADirectlink.com. Take care.

Bill Kresnak
Legal Affairs Editor
American Motorcyclist magazine
American Motorcyclist Association

Friends can reach Bill at bkresnak@ama-cycle.org.

And another reader comments: "Love the pics of Romeo. I almost like him as much as Silverman."

February 16, 2005 - Wednesday

The woes of print. The Advertiser's front page story about the Honolulu Police Department's web site for stolen property was hit by those automation gremlins yesterday morning. The story by Robbie Dingeman correctly reported the web address for the police web site, but in the print edition it fell victim to auto hyphenation which resulted in an address that wouldn't work if entered literally. The online version had no problem.

Yesterday's unsigned lead editorial in the Star-Bulletin on the issue of workers compensation legislation again displayed an anti-labor bias, with name calling replacing reasoning. It started by calling Sen. Brian Kanno a "reliable stooge of organized labor" and never returned to civility.

On the facts presented, the senate's refusal to move legislation proposed by the Lingle administration doesn't seem unreasonable. Although the S-B writer(s) seem to feel that being forced to obtain medical treatment from a company-selected doctor is the epitome of fairness, it's a position not designed to persuade anyone less then wholly convinced of their employer's benevolence. And that, my friends, includes an awful lot of the working population.

When all is said and done, one person's "stooge" might instead be seen as the reliable ally of a clear constituency. Not a bad position for a legislator to be in, the views of labor's opponents aside.

Was this, perhaps, a display of the conservative political bent attributed to SB owner David Black by other observers?

Speaking of the Star-Bulletin, put Richard Borreca back on camera! The S-B sponsored PBS Hawaii program broadcast Monday night, Island Insights, went downhill this week with Howard Dicus of Pacific Business News as moderator with UH Interim President David McClain as guest. Dicus coasted through the 30 minutes with a series of softball questions that did little to enlighten or draw out less than obvious information. Although PBN published a sharp editorial column about the community college management fiasco, Dicus failed to even raise the issue. The current controversy over classified research? Nothing. Instead, sugar coating all the way.

Although Borreca has a quiet approach, he's experienced enough to get past the introductions and press a hard question. If we're going to see Dicus again, he needs to learn to do the same.

And lawyers have announced their intention to file suit on behalf of tsunami victims against a number of parties, including the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Honolulu, according to a story by Agence France-Presse.

February 15, 2005 - Tuesday

First, news business....Union members at the Seattle Times have voted to approve a severance plan to cover an upcoming round of layoffs, the newspaper reported today.

And workers in the third month of a strike against the Vindicator newspaper in Youngstown, Ohio, are putting out their own online community publication, The Valley Voice.

The Valley Voice is the official strike publication of Newspaper Guild-Communications Workers of America Local 34011. We are reporters, photographers, copy editors, circulation district managers, delivery drivers and classified advertising sales people who seek a fair and equitable contract with Vindicator Printing Co.

A reader spotted this one. Do a Google search for "Turtle Bay Resort" and one of the first contextual ads that shows up along the side of the page reads, "Turtle Bay--True Hawaii?" and links to www.turtlebayboycott.info, a web site for the Hotel Workers boycott of the North Shore hotel. The reader comments: "Haven't seen the unions take it to this level but all's certainly fair."

If you find yourself feeling warm and fuzzy about living in Hawaii, here's a quite unflattering reflection in the eyes of a transplanted mainlander who sees things differently:

As for the rest of us, Mainlanders, whites, "fuckin' haoles," we do enjoy the same weather. But we're not welcome, and we know it. We're reminded every day, sometimes violently.

It's written to discomfort but worth reading.

Another local blog to check out is done by Rob Schumacher, a Pearl Harbor submariner, who bills his blog as "A Florida Liberal in King Kamehameha's Court." He flags a lot of interesting items from the news, but also boasts related sites featuring the family cats, etc. Now you can see how he caught my attention.

February 14, 2005 - Monday

PBN has a very insightful column in the current issue on the accreditation warning issued to the community college system, putting the blame squarely on the shoulders of former UH President Evan Dobelle. PBN calls Dobelle's community college policy "a business-school textbook example of what happens when you try to fix something that's not broken."

A biting editorial in today's New York Times blasts President Bush for what they call "reckless economic policies" and explains why the Bush budget proposal is a serious mistake.

Another example of aggressive sports reporting comes from the Dallas Morning News, which completed a major investigation into steroid use among high school athletes. I haven't waded through the entire series yet, but it is quite a read.

A new online publication is aimed at folks concerned about the academic life--Insidehighered.com, a project by several formers staffers of the Chronicle of Higher Education.

After yesterday's intemperate rant, I should stick to safer topics like cats. How about Mr. Romeo? We're experimenting with the "slow and steady" approach to introducing him into the household.

Mr. Romeo... click for more

This involves a series of gradual confidence building steps, with cat relations acting just like international politics. In any case, last week Romeo spent several days in our bedroom, the idea being that he could smell the other cats and they could get accustomed to his smells. Yesterday we kicked it up a notch and brought Romeo into the house and let him explore while the other cats were around.

After an initial loop around the living room, Romeo sat down with the drugs. Catnip, that is. Wally immediately exited onto the back deck and observed from a safe distance. Toby settled down to watch from across the room. Harry was asleep. And Duke, settled down on his currently favorite rug at the door to the back deck, just hunkered down.

All seemed to go well, except for a few hisses and some excitement when Harriet woke up and figured she needed to leap to the floor and take on the intruder. Combat avoided. Then, just when I was congratulating us all, some sort of cat signal was exchanged and Romeo jumped onto poor Mr. Duke, fur flying. They immediately broke up when I intervened, which means that it wasn't all that serious an attack. When it's real serious, the adrenaline is pumping so furiously that it's hard to separate fighting cats. That wasn't happening here. So even though the day's experiment ended prematurely, I'm not discouraged.

Anyway, I took a few pictures of the process, so click on Romeo's photo to check them out.

February 13, 2005 - Sunday

I was surprised to see Mike Leidemann's story in yesterday's Honolulu Advertiser, "Tax Foundation stands by its numbers on excise-tax hike".

Apparently it is the foundation's thinly-veiled response to my critical comments here on Thursday and mirrors a long email I received from foundation president Lowell Kalapa.

Kalapa's reply as restated by Leidemann reminds me of a button we added to our collection years ago which was much admired in academic circles. As I recall, this was the message:

"I've got charts and graphs, so f*** off !"

It's meaning: Don't be fooled by the small stuff.

Kalapa's reply has a bit more substance, but not that much. He begins by repeating the mantra that our excise tax is not a sales tax. That much we can agree on. But then the sleight of hand begins with a string of precise numbers and estimates.

There is an excess of pseudo-precision in the foundation's estimates. We're told that this statistically average family will have to pay $907.20 more as a result of the proposed excise tax increase. That extra seven dollars and twenty cents--count them, 20 pennies, not 19 or 21--lends an aura of authority to the number. Is the foundation's methodology really capable of such precise calculations, including that important 20 cents tacked on to the $907? The short answer is clearly "no". It's a claim that would be laughable if made directly. But using such specific numbers is part of the illusion of authority.

I'm not an economist and don't claim to be. Of course, neither is Kalapa. And although I enjoy him on a personal level, I'm skeptical when it comes to the foundation's economic assertions and political message.

When I look at arguments like this, I try to look for some outside validity rather than simply internal consistency. So instead of relying on the figures presented at the end of the Advertiser story, I'm looking for other independent evidence of what the numbers might mean.

After all, key pieces of the Tax Foundations' theory, like the "tax base", are not real things, but rather are constructs used by economists to explain and predict the behavior of the economy. Is it fair to refer to them as if we can spot them the same way in everyday life? Maybe not.

The foundation starts with "Arnie Aloha" and family, presented as a statistically average family with an adjusted gross income of $82,840 a year.

The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, however, puts the income before taxes of the average Honolulu household at $56,000, with annual expenditures of $43,448, substantially less than the foundation's Arnie Aloha.

The foundation then describes the impact of a transit tax based on their theory of how much this average family already pays in excise taxes, direct or indirect.

I'll try it another way. If the excise tax has such a dramatic hidden impact, it must be visible in lots of other ways. How about costs and prices? So let's check out comparable costs in Portland, Oregon, which doesn't have an excise tax or sales tax. According to the Tax Foundation's theory, the amount we're paying in hidden excise taxes should be reflected in much higher costs.

The same set of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics compares expenditures in a number of western cities, including Honolulu with our excise tax and Portland without any similar tax. The BLS data show Portland and Honolulu are almost exactly, with very similar expenditures. It's hard to see evidence there of any huge impact of our "compounding" excise tax on family expenditures.

I've gone on too long already, a result of having too much time on a lazy Sunday morning. Does this mean the Tax Foundation is wrong? Not necessarily. But it does, in my view, mean that the Tax Foundation's data, economic models, and opinions should not be uncritically swallowed by reporters in single source stories on controversial issues. There's a lot of room for disagreement under the surface of those charts and graphs.

Meanwhile, to counteract the adrenaline started by the tax argument, here are the best pictures from our early morning walks during the month of January. Sunrise on the beach is a good way to start the day. Click on the photo for the January batch.

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